Alice Cappelle Has a Point

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(why) i hate my country 🇫🇷
Alice Cappelle, 11 April 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oy3F1IbjdKU

1:27 I wrote in 2011 or 2012 - actually 25 of September 2011 this:

Autrefois, la retraite était normalement les enfants. Qqn qui roulait la plume pouvait bien se permettre à rester actif jusqu'à cent ans. Ou, si malgré l'aise physique le travail était mentalement pénible, investir dans une rente, devenir rentier. Qqn qui faisait les chantiers - sa retraite était la conscience et fortune de ses enfants, ou, si ses enfants n'avaient aucune possibilité ou volonté de l'aider, celle de ses camarades et voisins. Certes, l'industrialisme appauvrit le XIX S. les ouvriers tellement que c'était devenu difficile pour enfants et entourages d'aider leurs proches, tous ayant mal à faire tourner les choses en rond pour eux-mêmes, et qqs peu d'enfants. Mais ça n'était pas une fatalité, ça c'était puisque les petits entreprises se faisaient bouffer par les grandes.

Une fondation pour les retraites, que la caisse soit privée, une association obligatoire, l'état lui-même ou quoi que ce soit, n'est pas une tire-lire, beaucoup plus proche d'une banque.

Dans une tire-lire, on y met une pièce, elle y reste et on la retrouve première occasion qu'on veut, si personne n'ait volé de la tire-lire. Une banque ou une caisse pour les retraites ou une assurance n'est pas ça. Ce qui reste n'est pas la pièce matérielle, ni donc leur somme exacte par ajouts successifs, mais la somme des droits acquis pour le futur en revanche d'un dépôt présent. Car la banque ou l'assurance ou la caisse pour retraites va aussi-tôt dépenser la somme, matérielle ou idéelle, en d'autres obligations de versement et le jour qu'elle aura à vous reverser votre dépôt, elle comptera sur les dépôt qu'on faira alors. Dans le cas des retraites, les retraites futures, pour les avoir réellement, il ne faut pas juste avoir acquis les droits par cotisations, il faut qu'il y aura dans le futur suffisemment des gens qui côtisent de leur tour.

Avec la dénatalité, il n'y en a pas.

Ni avec les naissances françaises de souche, il y en a trop peu, ni avec l'immigration, car le jour que les immigrés se rendent compte qu'ils peuvent voter un autre système et ne plus avoir à côtiser aux retraites des gens qui ne sont pas leurs proches, ils changeront le système. Pas parce qu'ils sont méchants, mais parce qu'ils ne sont pas stupides. Et vivre sous leur protection peut s'avérer pénible, encore une fois pas parce qu'ils sont méchants, mais parce qu'ils sont étrangers. Ils ont d'autres expectations sur ce que des vieillards peuvent s'attendre en absence d'avoir fait et nourri d'enfants quand ils pouvaient.

This is an extract from a blog post called "L'Esprit d'Escalier" which is at the date mentioned on the blog "deretour" on blogger, with the distinctive URL-part hglundahlsblog - look it up.

[ deretour : L'Esprit d'Escalier
https://hglundahlsblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/lesprit-descalier.html ]

The title is explained as "Hier j'ai eu une discussion avec un homme qui me paraissait assez honnête. Mais je l'ai laissé parler un peu plus que de lui répondre, après il y a des choses qui me viennent en esprit."

So, if Russia had even worse problems with nativity due to even more abortions than France, why isn't this happening in Russia?

Well, it did

Putin and Medvedev faced impopularity during 4 months of 2018.

After this, Covid and Ukraine have been a very ideal diversion from the pension issue, to get Putin's popularity up again ...

Or Sweden? About same abortion rate as France and lots more contraception ... well, pension system was hollowed in 2003, before I left the country.

Now it's not one central system guaranteed by the state, it's six alternative pension funds under private management, and the state only guarantees an insufficient pension, if that's all you have, you need social welfare as well.

Me at 95 in Sweden, if I live that long and don't get an editor:
"Yes, I'm applying for social welfare this month too, I still have only the insufficient guarantee pension" ...

Meanwhile, the guys who realised the reform was our Social Democratic party, not a right wing one. Social Democrats of Sweden, more effective at making mentalities Marxist than Communism in Soviet Union and so on, but as humdrum and non-magical when it comes to making pensions work with less and less input from young people working.

And in US, which has better fertility rates than France, you will probably have the Swedish model imposed 9 years from now.

4:47 Are executive directors and major shareholders of CAC 40 really in added up wealth comparable to the losses in youth and workforce?

To me, CAC 40 suggests, it is 40 executive directors and perhaps 15 to 50 more per ultra-rich company ...

I suppose the forecast of deficit for the next ten years is such that this might cover, but what about the future after that, if feminism continues to drive down birth rates?

4:55 Yes, certainly, inflations are a bad thing ... banning price rises (and wage rises along with it) could be a solution.

When you do it without collectivisation, it is often referred to as Corporatismo - or Fascismo (io parlo del programma di Sansepolcro, 1919, no della Carta della Razza, imitazione infame del Hitlerismo) ...

I think, and I think it has something to do with immigrants and their less solidarity with 90 year old French persons than young French might have, it may have lowered purchasing power more for old age pensioners than for those still working.

5:08 225,9 milliards de dollars ... est-ce la fortune ou le revenu annuel de ce mec?

Sorry, this channel is in English, my bad ... if it is his fortune, taxing that fortune would:

• delay depletion of pension funds
• but not repair it, as fortunes are also depleted

If it is his annual income, you may actually have a point ... 207 billion € (according to the dollar euro converter on google) ... but one cannot tax away all of it.

And as mentioned, I think this kind of company counts as CAC 40, and I have a hunch this means "40 biggest companies" ...

400 000 times more than a seamstress.
* 40 for CAC 40 (probably he's in the top section)
= 16 000 000 times more

Now, 8 000 000 seamstresses (as said, one cannot tax all of it) are not comparable to all of the work force. Or wait ...

En 2017, selon l' enquête Emploi , la population active au sens du Bureau international du travail (BIT) est estimée à 29,7 millions de personnes de 15 ans ou plus en France (hors Mayotte). Elle regroupe 26,9 millions d'actifs ayant un emploi et 2,8 millions de personnes au chômage.

8 / 29,7 = roughly 27 % ... but probably less, since he's probably not just in CAC 40, but even in the top of that one, with his supergroup.

7:58 49.3 may be anti-democratic, but when Laurent Fabius used it in 1984 ...

Loi n°84-937 du 23 octobre 1984 visant à limiter la concentration et à assurer la transparence financière et le pluralisme des entreprises de presse dite « loi anti-Hersant »

XX

I would as a Distributist like a similar law against concentrating Moët with Louis Vuitton, if you get the reference ...

Sure, you can sell and buy shares, but when a company is as big as all that, not in the direction of an even bigger company ...

Though if you prefer taxing CAC 40 executives over getting more children, you might consider this as "killing the goose that lays the golden egg" ... I still don't think taxing CAC 40 is a long term solution for pensions.

9:09 w a i t ... that they didn't work during the pandemic ... who was preventing the work?

"La présidence Marine" and "le gouvernement Jordan"?

Hmmm ... I think I recall another result from 2017 ...

Could it have been a president who was called Emmanuel, instead?

9:25 On that issue, I think you might take a hint from Manu and listen to what Tucker Carlson has to say about January 6 ...

9:53 I would agree that abolishing Veil, Neuwirth and Taubira laws (I'm actually as a former convict against both Taubira laws) would be a much better hope for France, and indeed for the world.

He is right about the tendency if fertility rates stay the same though ... but prolonging the delay to 14 weeks is not fixing the root problem, it's just the contrary.

That (rather than the sole reform as such) is why, this happened: I walked towards a lycée in Paris I was going to pass. It was blocked, high school students were seated on garbage bins outside it. One of them had a cardboard which said:

- // Tu pues le Camembert, Macron //
- "C'est pas un peu le manque de respect?" (dis-je)
- "Oui, mais lui, il nous manque le respect" (dit-il)
- "Non, je parlais du Camembert" (dis-je)

If he was referring to a specific Camembert from a producer that also makes butter, I understand the joke weeks later (speaking of "esprit d'escalier" ...) ... I have a preference, when I buy Camembert, to buy Le Rustique, monarchist, as I am ...

11:22 If you ask me, World War I was a huge mistake, and with all my Germanity, though I am not actually a German, a certain paradigm in Berlin or rather Potzdam was to blame ...

One of the casualties beyond the battle field was ... a more normal way of producing things. I don't recall whether Historia said 50 % were independent or 90 % independent and within them 50 % independent farmers, back in 1900, but that kind of production was so much less concentrated that Moët + Vuitton = zéro chance. Or that meme from Princess Bride "you mean there is a chance?"

TheSorrel

While World War 1 is the genesis of basically all international politics atm, capitalism has existed before that.

Hans-Georg Lundahl

@TheSorrel I didn't say the casualty was Primeval Communism. I don't believe in that.

I said it was "a more normal way of producing things" - which very much fits the bill for France, if not England, in 1900.

In World War I, lots of small farmers were drafted, the crops weren't neglected, but confided to tractors so fewer people could do them. After the war, tractors remained and farmers started losing out.

In England, a similar process had happened in two stages - Reformation era involved "commons" (a piece of land kept in common by the farmers of a village) started to be enclosed as private property of landlords. This made it far easier to "go broke" as a farmer.

In the Napoleonic wars, many farmers then actually went broke. The corresponding moment to the Napoleonic wars in England was World War I in France.

I wonder if some Monarchist would argue the moment corresponding to Enclosures in England was the French Revolution. Certainly the "guilds" - in French "jurandes" were abolished first in England in the Reformation and then in France by "La loi Le Chapelier, promulguée en France le 14 juin 1791" ...

17:20 "exactly what Putin does"

Same problem, with some years difference in timing:

abortion -> low fertility -> bad funding of pensions

Same solution preference:

banning abortion? no

taxing the rich more? no

make people work longer? you nailed it

Same reaction to it:

riotting (in Russia it was 2018) (without, Navalny like CGT, without suggesting abortions should be banned)

Same reaction to the reaction:

harder repression

motivating the harder repression by a fake terrorist or extremist label on opponents ...