Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Douglas Macgregor's analysis and mine


I will not dispute this general's capacity for military analysis (though I am asking for a second opinion). On some other matters, I think he's wrong.

Ukraine is about to be annihilated
Douglas Macgregor | 22 Nov. 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfgF4x7TCmM


5:34 This is in fact a case of amnesia.

One of the first pictures we saw was Russians bombarding infrastructure and making civilians homeless and frozen in the area of Kyiv - in case you didn't notice, that's not eastern Ukraine.

6:40 Azov "Nazis" may certainly have some issues, one of which being to idealise, in some cases, not just Ukrainean allies of Nazis (that's comprehensible), but actually NS Germany too.

But that's no reason to annihilate people who are mostly defending their country in mostly licit ways.

6:46 "not just murdering Russians, they are murdering their own people"

Oh, is that so?

According to what sources of information? Russian ones?

7:52 Novorossiya certainly had some Russian and German settlers in industrialised cities.

Doesn't make the countryside Russian.

What you said about Kharkiv can be contradicted fairly easily with a brief look at wikipedia.

"The earliest historical references to the region are to Scythian and Sarmatian settlement in the 2nd century BCE. Between the 2nd to the 6th centuries CE there is evidence of Chernyakhov culture, a multiethnic mix of the Geto-Dacian, Sarmatian, and Gothic populations.[8] In the 8th to 10th centuries the Khazar fortress of Verkhneye Saltovo stood about 25 miles (40 km) east of the modern city, near Staryi Saltiv.[9] During the 12th century, the area was part of the territory of the Cumans, and then from the mid 13th century of the Mongol/Tartar Golden Horde.

"By the early 17th century, the area was a contested frontier region with renegade populations that had begun to organise in Cossack formations and communities defined by a common determination to resist both Tatar slavery, and Polish-Lithuanian and Russian serfdom. Mid-century, the Khmelnytsky Uprising against the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth saw the brief establishment of an independent Cossack Hetmanate."


Only after that, this Cossack population got a Russian governor.

Putin may have some good information sources about foreign affairs, as they are moving.

He's already lousy on US internal affairs ("white Christian Churches are a minority in the US," he claimed) or internal affairs of Indonesia (he laughed at exporting pork to that country because Muslims don't eat pork, but forgot Christians in the capital, including guest workers, and tourists at least to Bali). And when it comes to history, if you throw a coin on whether to believe him after every statement, you are at least better off than by thinking of him as well informed.

And if there is one topic where Russian Orthodox don't even like to be well informed, it's about Ukraineans and about Catholics, specifically Ukrainean Uniate Catholics.

10:31 Previously, they thought EVERY Ukrainean except a few jerks would welcome a Russian invasion.

When they saw this wasn't so, they got mad about Ukraineans.

It's a bit like how Muslims first pretended a certain Perfectus (a Catholic priest in Cordoba, X or IX C) was going to be happy they had arranged for him to be a Muslim, and when he insisted on NO, they insisted on KILL. For the first time, as soon as they actually understood him, they went in to kill.

10:40 The gross miscalculation on Putin's part in February would be like if Charles III felt like the Irish would welcome the British Army to Dublin and to Cork.

15:14 Whatever right one had to ask this question back then, at the NATO expansion, exactly the same right one has to ask Putin this a few months ago.

What hallucinogenics was he taking? Oh, wait, he's a Russian, that explains a lot.

A US Citizen may not be ultra clear about all that's going on in Canada or Mexico, but that's genius compared to a Russian speaking up on Ukraine matters.

21:10 It so happens, what you say about ammo makes some sense.

What you say about France reminds me so much of the situation in late 1939, when the French military didn't want to go into Germany to stop the invasion of Poland.

A few months later, the very little they actually had been into Germany in token obedience to the orders and perhaps not even that, even less than that, just government saying "Poland is right" was enough for Germany to invade France. Not AS bad for Paris as when Russia invaded Paris in 1814, but still.

That the French military is right wing leaning doesn't bother me.

What bothers me is that the French right wing is heavily Putinised.

2014, Sixtus Henry of Bourbon Parma (a major supporter of Mgr Lefebvre, first to congratulate him in 1988) was on a conference with Aleksandr Dugin and a few more.

The French right wing, unfortunately, have decided, the Russians are best fitted to tell us what to do.

22:55 - 24:58 IF you should get into a war, how about this?
A) a few of the generals lead US troops, in or outside US
B) some others (probably most) start organising troops that work with little fuel.
C) some yet others (again a minority) start working on plans to neutralise Russian missile firing contraptions.

30:06 The main (top ten) priorities, "not sure Ukraineans make the list"

Like Poles in France, 1939. That's why the French army told their government, "we can't invade Germany" ...

32:16 The global caliphate is largely driven underground.

Doesn't mean it's non existant, but it's not occupying territories. Perhaps certain streets or neighbourhoods, the poorest in some cities, but not square miles of open countryside.

Putin's Russia could become a kind of Ersatz to its fans.

And to me, I'm more wary of KGB / FSB, than of Muslim jihadis, even if I support neither in their maximal claims.

32:51 "Find out who the donors are"

How long have FSB been donors to the Right Wing in Western Europe?

37:32 Have you heard of BRICS?

"BRICS is an acronym for five leading emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The first four were initially grouped as "BRIC" (or "the BRICs") in 2001 by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill, who coined the term to describe fast-growing economies that would collectively dominate the global economy by 2050;[1] South Africa was added in 2010.[2]"


That could be the new East Bloc.

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